I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.