As much as I love Messi and I do think he is the best player of all times, it would not really feel right if he gets the ballon d'or for the past season. Players like Haaland or Lewandwoski were really fun to watch, really exciting performances. That also counts for a number of other players, but not so much for Ronaldo and Messi the past year.
However, there was a meme going around, it was like: Messi chose Paris as his next club because that is where the Ballon d'or will be handed out, so he can save money on the flights.
If Modric won years ago over Ronaldo who scored the all-time record goals in one Year in the Cl only for a political choice of leaving Real Madrid, this year Messi can surely win over Lewa and Jorginho for another political (QATAR) decision.
There is definitely some truth to what you are saying! Certainly, Messi and Ronaldo often deserved the trophies simply because they were the best on the planet, period. But at times there are political and fame elements involved, which is really not great, but not surprising either right? That is how the world works. I am totally convinced that Messi is the all-time best, yet he must deserve the trophy yearly by achievement, not by reputation based on the past. Of course, even in a bad season he is the best striker in La Liga.
Let's see who it's going to be. What is your bet?