Couple of years ago, around 2018, I researched a bit deeper about dogecoin. I came to conclusion, that it is like dormant: development dead, a dying thing.
If in 2018 it was not only Dogecoin that was dying, but Bitcoin itself is also experiencing it now along with all other Altcoins that are also popular at this time, so I don't think it is a suitable thing to be used as a specific benchmark for Dogecoin.
That's correct, you can't just based on the past because 2018 is a year where most altcoins have suffered a lot and it's the start of a long correction. The growth of DOGE is not due to its development, it only rises in value due to the hype created by Elon Musk, so it's safe to say that without him, DOGE will remain on its value of volatility.
Now, look at DOGE, does it pump again? No, it only moves within its range and there's a big indication that it's just like a ticking bomb that will explode anytime and people will eventually panic.
When the reason for the rise is hype, you'll know what will happen when there's a FUD.