Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
*Fun with fractals*
A re-test of old resistance becoming new support? Sounds short-term bearish I know, but in fact it'd be extremely bullish to build up momentum as recent price history has previously proven....
A re-test of old resistance becoming new support? Sounds short-term bearish I know, but in fact it'd be extremely bullish to build up momentum as recent price history has previously proven....
You are trying to draw a potential short-term bearish picture out of the matter, even though bitcoin is very bullish, as your alternative assertion seems to suggest as the minority likely outcome... We are bullish, so something is likely wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrooooooonnnnngggggg with your bearish anticipatenings.
Let's wait and see
For sure, we both no doubt agree Daily/Weekly are bullish, but 4hr chart for all those traderz out there is no longer bullish. It's not outright *bearish*, but key bullish momentum has been broken.
Hence, not shorting opportunity bearish (unless you love high risk and regularly getting rekt™), but more bullish momentum has faded "take profits" neutral, wait for re-entry.
Are we merely repeating our old go to talking-points just in another BTC price-posture scenario?
Hey.. by the way, I just thought about another dynamic that we have discussed which is my having considered that $55k to $80k is a kind of noman's zone. so whether or not that noman's zone actually exists, I remain of the belief that recent BTC price actions have not yet negated both the existence of such noman's zone more or less where I have conceptually placed it and the likely ongoing pressures that come from the likely ongoing existence of such noman's zone....so sure, nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia, but it just seems more difficult to get BTC price corrections while we are in such zone.. not impossible, but likely way more work for any bearwhales trying to either keep the BTC price from passing through such zone or to attempt to knock the BTC price below the zone (or otherwise attempt to negate the actual likely existence of such zone).
In terms of trading volume, it's true that a few months ago I considered price to be in low trading range (no-mans land) above $57K. I glad you mentioned this as based on previous VPVR point of control, price yesterday wicked of this as support. It would make sense as to why price would bottom out here and make new ATH, hence I'm not doubting this could be the case. After all, pull-backs and recoveries can happen from anywhere, but given the current double top (short-term for now), coming back down to the 50 Day 50 / 0.618 retracement level and finding support there, that is typical in Bitocin's price (in terms of price/time averages for a correction), would be the most likely place around $52.5K.
That said, yesterday's wick that liquidated longs is a bit of a game changer, to me it's showing that $54.5K - $57.5K will act as strong support based on the past 8 months of trading volume in this area. I also can't deny that were here a partial form of price discovery. If price continues to trade above $57.5K for longer, then for my analysis would change. It would indicate price doesn't need to go lower. On the other side of the argument is the trading gap in the $51K-54.5K range, that if $40-$43K price levels is anything to go by, price can be drawn to it to build support there. I'm roughly 60-40 that price goes a bit lower, but maybe it won't have to be low $50Ks, but more high $50Ks (that has already occurred since publishing my analysis).
Otherwise since July, as referenced above, above $40K I've been around 70-30 bullish longer-term, after being around 50-50/60-40 in the $30K-$40K range that we would go lower to around $25K. Not enough to hold back, but enough to leave some capital aside. This went up to around 75% once hash ribbons signalled, then probably 80-20 over $50K. That still remains, but doesn't mean a healthy correction won't happen in the short-term. Quite the opposite.
Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.
It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.
It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.
Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP
I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.
Technically price has (so far) formed a double top on a Weekly time-frame. Double tops aren't where price is exactly the same, but when they are close enough prior to a reversal (such as <3%).
That said, Bitcoin has never ended it's mid or long-term bull markets with a double top, especially 6 months apart, so I find it highly unlikely this will be the case this time around.
$10K is otherwise an insane price to be targeting. $10K would more likely yield $1K prices with a definite bubble burst than a new low, as it would invalidate 10 years of price history.
The 200 Week MA that price has never broken below in the past 6 years is currently >$15K, by 2023 it'll likely be >$20K
This is just the fakeout for the "double top believers" and traditional traders prior to new ATH
I prefer the theory that double tops are meant to be broken, as it weakens resistance...
Fair enough regarding your points about double top or no double top.
Your factual description of the 200 week MA seems a wee bit off both in terms of facts and in terms of speculation regarding where the 200-week moving average might be going in the next 14-months-ish.
First, actual measurements of the current 200-week MA puts it at about $16,650, and one year ago it was right around $7k. Look at the current 200-week MA in the below link.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/
That's why I said >$15K and >$20K, because I wasn't sure of the exact numbers based on projection, dependant on a bear market in 2022 or not....
I don't doubt $30K is out the question, hence I was assuming it could be anywhere between $20K and infinity
As I type we are now otherwise breaking out the bullish descending triangle / bull flag, as well as moving above the 50 MA, closing above here would be a bullish sign and would put me back on the 50-50 fence, even leaning slightly bullish short-term again.
I'm actually a bit glad as unexpectedly took some more altcoin profits last night to average even moar back in for longer-term, so that's always a bonus