Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.
more like 0.0001% of total population
I was assuming 2 million users now and target penetration of 2 billion users => 0.1%.
It is true that most of the 2 million are not really "using" bitcoin now, so we cannot yet directly observe how world-changing Bitcoin is. This "land-grab phase" is designed to take us there.
My 0.01% - 0.03% guesstimate was 600,000 to 1.8 million based on world population of 6 billion.
Dogecoin (why don't they pronounce it "doggiecoin" or "dog-ecoin"
) claims 100,000 users yet the mcap is only $43 million. Apparently it is the copper-zinc penny coin (feel good marketing, donations, cute dogs) and Litecoin is the current silver to Bitcoin's gold.Isn't market cap more relevant+concrete than the nebulous concept of "users" (not all types of users are the same).
Feel free to copy or reply to this on your other thread that is relevant to this issue.
We are clearly in investment only stage, because who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend. That will block any major application as a currency until governments bless it as legal tender. But why would governments ever bless it since it removes their authority to control the money supply?
At some point the reality of that has to hit the investment demand. But I guess we have a lot of myopia to go before the "stampede to the exits" realization.