The bottoms of that last chart come off as somewhat conservative, but I suppose that bottoms do tend to be conservative anyhow... but seeing so much sub $100k bottom projection in 2022 and into 2023 causes me less enthusiasm than seeing tops (even though I have been growing more and more fond of bottom analysis in recent years).

I will note that I can still appreciate the overall chart as still being quite bullish if we would thereafter consider that the projection of the yellow line would likely have some flat in 2023 and then perhaps start to slope UPpity in later 2023..and so at some point our bottom projection would thereafter get permanently above $100k... maybe around late 2024? - early 2025-ish?