Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I think the chance is likely we see it fail late in this "cycle", which is really fairly soon...
Salty cow.
Salty cows everywhere.
@JJG - Note that @cAPSLOCK talks about S2F likely failing late in this cycle, but he doesn't specify if it will fail on the downity or the uppity.
Some peep was not pee-pared to this plot twist? Perhaps? Perhaps?
I think there is a CHANCE it fails in this cycle. And I think it breaks to the upside.
But I think there is probably a greater chance it fails in a later cycle. But it does fail eventually... it has to. I am pretty sure the creator of it says that as well.
Wanting to add this. The creator of the Bitcoin S2F model ALSO has a belief that his model will break to the upside. He does not SAY that very often in interviews, or writing. Perhaps that is because he does not want to live through the lambasting that will come if he is wrong. But his actions give his position away...
His "cross asset" model is there to pick up the debris when his pure Bitcoin S2F model gets wrecked. So you can see which way HE is hedging his predictions very clearly if you look.
What else is new? Since 2010, there have been quite a few folks who have already suggested BTC's exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, and the stock to flow model does not really account for demand that is contained within the exponential s-curve adoption presumptions in any kind of meaningful way - except perhaps there could be some kinds of built in aspects of S2F that presumes ongoing demand or holds demand as a kind of constant within the model..... in other words, we already know about these kinds of ongoing UPpity price pressures while the S2F model can be used as a framework until it is not.. so maybe we are saying similar things with some semantical differences regarding the breaking of the model (which I have been ongoingly critical of PlanB for such terminology too) and in the meantime..... I am NOT going to retract any assertion to lump you in as a salty cow, and perhaps even an old one for your BTC price prediction model rolling inclinations, as already stated. #nohomo
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.... I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume
... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets
... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance
... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase
... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory
Aka - part of the price dynamics of being in noman's land too.
It could also end up being that the top of noman's land ends up establishing its lil selfie more in the $100k or higher area rather than my whimpy $80k assertion.. even though it remains somewhat unrealistic to expect NOT running into some resistance prior to reaching 6 digits..... I do strive to be somewhat conservative as much as feasible in terms of still sticking with $80k...... but let's see how the next few days (and maybe even the whole of this week) play(s) out... #justsaying