Heya tifozi, long time... welcome back. I have a feeling you may have shown up just in time for some fireworks.
You are right about the ETH angle. In fact seems to me the whole bank/institutional money world seems to be aping in (yeah yeah) as a way to concede without conceding. I think either out of sheer ignorance (ETH is more gizmos - therefore better) or possibly understanding (ETH is an asset we can control very similarly to how we have played the USD. Better it than the pure thing).
You have any more thought on your exchange manipulation? I feel like more than anything exchanges just don't want to touch Monero very much, i suppose due to the whole "drug money" stigma. With Kraken being an interesting exception.
I do not think Monero can stay where it is for much much longer, and I think the privacy maxis entering the space are more important than most anything else in recent times. Once folks like they understand how it works, and well, how WELL it works? They are going to start dipping their toes in it. The Monero Market cap (stupid metric, but still) is at LEAST an order of magnitude too small currently. I would say it should dig well into that double digit billions realm to be fairly enough priced for it to make sense.
That means Monero in the 2k-6k realm.
With 8% of Bitcoin's transactions I think we could conceive of an 8% value to match.
Currently that is $5200. But I think it will be more like 9k by the time we get there... Still I would set 5k as a reasonable target because if things go well in the bitcoin space, that is a <5% chunk.
Conservative.
Thanks cAPSLOCK
Yah I believe the S2F is > $2000 this year. My guess is though that it may lag again unless there are macro events. The people who are getting in nowadays don't even understand crypto, so the path is harder outside of merchant adoption etc. Fireworks are also important though, just like we have seen it help BTC adoption. This year? I doubt it. We have a month and a half to go and XMR hasn’t really showed it could do a 10x like most other alts do like it was nothing. I mean I used to think (or hoped) it could, esp earlier this year. But no. I don’t think it will now. I’d like to be wrong tho. Lol.
In alts the thing that drive multi-bag gains is hype. Monero's general hype was over in ~2016-2017. And now it's just a boring crypto project that does what it is supposed to EXTREMELY well. As the person a couple posts up mentioned scaling will be an issue for it, like all blockchains.
Eventually Monero's utility will do two things. First, it will continue to be used, but it will also draw the fire of governments.
I think it has a floor much more solid than the VAST majority of alts because it is being used. And it will continue to be used.
If I did not think Monero still has a significant rise waiting in the wings I would not be hanging around here (and also hold what I am holding).
Eventually, as the hoards begin to file into Bitcoin the privacy realization will be heating up in a LOT of people... and there are several privacy SHITcoin premined, affinity scam, founders rewards, traps. And there is Monero. The only fair privacy coin, really... that works, and has no trusted setup at least. Not to mention the only currency of the ONLY dark market that did not get shut down by the FBI and didn't exit scam.