Quote from: OutOfMemory on November 09, 2021, 05:49:13 PM

Yes, as long as i only sell the portion of my stash that was bought no less than one year before the actual law will be put in effect (2022/03/01)
...which is the majority. JJG posted several times about the importance of perfectly timing the top and bottom, which you just can't as a human being, unless you are savetherainforest Roll Eyes

It seems worth an elaboration attempt here.

Of course, you know your situation better than anyone OOM, so of course, you have to decide the extent to which it might be beneficial to be jumping through hoops with your stash based on potential tax savings or adjustments, and sometimes, I have considered that it is largely not worth moving coins around even if there might be some tax benefits by doing x, y or z.. ...

And, surely sometimes there can be a whole hell of a lot of accounting madness in trying to figure out what might be the advantages and disadvantages of certain kinds of behaviors, whether we are considering the magnitude of price changes versus the magnitude about how one tax or another might add into your accounting.

Consider the case of Raja_MBZ. For sure, he had been considering that he had something like a sure deal when he sold his whole stack of BTC (even if it might have been less than 0.21 BTC) at $55k, and his bet was that BTC prices must be in an exponential period and going to correct down to 200-week moving average because BTC prices had corrected down to the 200-week moving average several times earlier in its life, so in mid-May 2021, around the time that Raja_MBZ sold his BTC, the 200-week moving average would have been around $12k, so he was actually waiting for BTC prices to drop back down to reach that price - or alternatively, if he waits out the dip/bear season long enough then sooner or later that BTC price is going to meet the 200-week moving average. Currently the 200-week moving average is a bit above $17k. and moving up several hundred hours each week.

See one of his posts on the topic, here... of course, you can browse through some of his post history too to find some related posts.

Likely his mistake was not using the 200-week moving average as a potential maximum price dips guide, but failure refusal to accept that we may well might not be in a bear market, and he could end up having to wait 3 years for spot price to meet the 200-week moving average which would likely cause a lot of opportunity costs, including a decent amount of likelihood that the 200-week moving average is going to go above his sales price before spot price meets the 200-week moving average.... one way of messing up a potentially decent trade to buy back in after a 56% price drop, even if you might not end up maximizing your selling at the top nor buying at the bottom.

How are BTC related matters feeling now, Raja_MBZ?

Still expecting a correction down to the 200-week moving average within the next year?

I would surely not be betting on the BTC price being below $55k at the next time that BTC prices meet that 200-week moving average, even assuming that there might be some day that the BTC price does again meet the 200-week moving average.

Personally, I do consider the 200-week moving average (prefer to use 208-week moving average) as a great way to measure the most extremes of BTC price bottoms that we are likely to get from time to time, but it seems way too greedy of a metric to attempt to trade upon especially if there are other ways to spot bargain BTC prices, even if we might not be spotting the lowest that BTC prices are likely to be going.