In my view, when it comes to "professional" blockchain analysis or mere observation of what is going on inside blockchain, no proof can be considered solid or undeniable because there is always more than one interpretation of a given transaction. Even if a blockchain surveillance firm claims that a sender and receiver could easily be identified, that doesn't make their interpretation less subjective. Transactions do not contain any personal data written in them, so any claim that a certain transaction was made by you is by default highly questionable. It can serve only as indirect evidence at best.

However, when you are interacting with the bitcoin blockchain in the wrong way, namely via third-party services such as centralized exchanges and others, you give observers so much information about yourself that you no longer can deny your involvement in particular transactions. Moreover, when using centralized services, you are being constantly surveilled and monitored, there is no way you can escape the surveillance, there is no chance you can avoid their prying eyes. That is precisely what happened to the Binance user that was "caught" withdrawing to his Wasabi Wallet. The thing is that he, like any other Binance user, was constantly surveilled by Binance staff, which means they tracked each of his transactions, be it a deposit to or a withdrawal from the exchange. One day they noticed that the said user made a withdrawal and later sent the funds to a CoinJoin transaction. They didn't like the fact that some user had tried to escape their surveillance by obfuscating the transaction. Once the user made another withdrawal, they assumed he was again using the Wasabi Wallet address for the transaction and froze his account. That is it.