It will be 50:50. After Elon Musk tried to manipulate the price of bitcoin his popularity declined. There aren't many people who easily believe Elon Musk, but some still believe. If you want to follow the trend Elon Musk must be as soon as possible to attract profits. Elon Musk is rapidly changing in his support of cryptocurrencies. If you feel this is high risk enough, you should not need to follow Elon Musk trend.
Very clear advice not to depend on what Elon musk does or depend on what Elon musk tweets on his twitter. There are many other strategies that you can use as motivation or the latest information besides Elon Musk.