In the semi finals, both teams chasing won the match and that was a common format we saw throughout this tournament. So i would say that the toss will be an important aspect as the team winning the toss will bowl first and i am going to bet on the team chasing. I am waiting for the toss and i might be placing a couple of hundred dollars and see how it will go.
Yes toss is the major key. In UAE, you win half of the game on toss. But if you see Pak vs Aus game yesterday, it was very much balanced till 19th over. If Pakistan didn't dropped catch of Wade the result could be very different. I suggest don't just put bet base on toss in the final. Both NZ and Aus are very much balanced sides and if side batting first can score 185+ runs, it will be very interesting to see the chase.