i would say that the toss will be an important aspect as the team winning the toss will bowl first and i am going to bet on the team chasing.
By slowing down in powerplay overs while batting first, I believe that teams will try to eliminate the impact of losing the toss. It has worked for many teams so far in this tournament. In semi final, Australia's weakness against spin attack got exposed and by considering the New Zealand's spinners' I guess New Zealand got better chances to clinch the cup. Considering batting depth and pace bowling attacks, both of the teams are equally balanced but there could be only difference in spin bowling.