B/W I will place my bet right after the toss, anyone winning the toss will surely win the game.
Winning toss and choosing fielding first also more important. I guess in this tournament Bangladesh and Afghanistan had chosen to bat first after winning the toss but ended up losing their matches if my memory serves be perfect. I am also in plan to bet after the toss but we need to remember that in the IPL final, CSK won the title after batting first on the same venue. So, we need to be prepared to face all kind of results as well.
Absence of Convoy might be getting them negative impact to New Zealand in my perdition. Still, bowling attack in terms of both pace and spin, I guess New Zealand is in better form than Australia in my opinion.
New Zealand without Conway will be weaker than Australia as far as batting is concerned. However in bowling, New Zealand has the advantage. With Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins not in form, there is a chance that the New Zealand openers and Williamson may add some quick runs in the initial overs. Middle overs will be problematic for NZ, with Adam Zampa in great form. And for Australia, they need to find out a way to take on the Kiwi pace battery. The absence of Ferguson has left a chink, and they just need to exploit it.