It seems to me that it would be safer (and more convenient) to keep your crypto on an exchange (coinbase, blockfi etc) than cold wallet. Wouldn't the odds be greater that you mess up your cold storage than a large exchange being hacked or whatever (even if they are hacked, that wouldn't necessarily mean you would lose any coins, whereas if you are hacked that's a different story). I ordered a ledger nano X but it seems that the exchanges are still the way to go based on probabilities. What are your thoughts?
In my opinion, it depends. Not everyone is paranoid enough to move their assets off an exchange to a private wallet only to misplace the keys. I've said it a couple of times to people that recently joined crypto in my location ~ Since cryptois designed to put the power and full control of our finances, we're supposed to take the safety and security of our assets very seriously because once crypto is lost via a private wallet (misplaced priv keys, mnemonic phrases, etc), it is near impossible to get back.
Not everyone is paranoid but there are certain occassions that experience trader got a fud news which can make the market collapsed and although this feelings might not affect the as a whole but for sure.
Also its really good to have safety nets towards this.
But also experience to know these things will result us a positive output since whatever market moves we will not get panic or do some negative decisions.