Short answer: You cant know, like knowing what's 2+2 . Its that simple. No one knows. But you can make a plan, according to your strategy and then, if it starts playing out, enter a position. That is what I do for btcusd and others. This my current view of things. If it happens, I get an entry. If not, then there is no entry. Its that simple. It needs to be updated regularly, and then be followed again.