Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
TL;DR: I am not salty! I am sour and bitter.
I'll be the contrarian to other uber-bulls here and agree that currently price is having a dead cat bounce on the 4hr chart, nothing else has confirmed otherwise other than doses of hopium.
A death cross was confirmed yesterday (as circled) while previously price was perfectly rejected by the VPVR point of control. For sure, so far it's only a DCB.
But yet again you fail to look at the bigger picture. Yes price has failed to reclaim the 50 Day MA, and therefore am anticipating further consolidation or downside before further upside, in order for this mid-term MA to flatten out and shed bullish expectations short-term, but the Daily/Weekly charts remain bullish. The 50 Day MA remains above the 200 Day MA, so as long as price holds $46K, price remains bullish long-term.
Price hasn't even re-tested previous resistance level of $53K either, which in a bull market the expectation would be turn into new support (just as $40K turned into new support).
Obviously we are below the shorter-term distribution zone around $61K-$62K, but this distribution volume looks insignificant compared to the longer-term accumulation below...
A contrarian opinion, loud and clear. A bold statement in these bull territories. Detailed and documented.
It doesn't suit my taste, though. I'd prefer a dash of hopium. Oh well, whatever.
+1 WOsMerit
Short-term contrarian to the uber-bulls, but long-term I remain fully bullish, it's just a matter of time-frames. Nothing has really changed since price found support at $40K. This was the key test along with confirmation of the recovery by returning to $65K. The only difference now is that volume support is at a higher price than it previously was, so less likelihood of downside, even if reasonable chance of it.
In summary, good chance the low is already in, so wouldn't be waiting around for lower prices but averaging in instead. Obviously avoid shorting bull markets for a start, but short-term isn't a screaming buy either. I otherwise wasn't necessary suggesting further downside will happen (though I wouldn't rule it out), more the idea that consolidation at minimum before further upside now looks more likely as bulls have failed to quickly maintain the recovery above the 50 Day MA support that was broken. Given how fast the this MA is rising, the recovery needed to be swiftly achieved, but is instead so far confirming resistance around $60K.
I don't even consider further downside to be more likely than consolidation, but would give it an equal chance at this point, hence remaining neutral in the short-term, before further upside and new ATH.
This isn't necessary bearish analysis. Last time I was short-term neutral, slightly bearish was around $64K first rejection, before price moved sideways for 3 weeks...