I think that bitcoin cycles are already largely diminished, therefore the price dynamics will follow a random trajectory with a trend up, but we are not going to get an average of 200% per year anymore (maybe 50-100%).
I, too, a few months back suggested that the halvings are getting less and less relevant. Of course I didn't have this insight myself - it's something I read during the 2017 bull run. I got picked by a few fellow WOers, and there was a little discussion - quite civilized actually, no flame wars. After all that, however, I'm still not sure how "relevant" the last halving is going to be.
I definitely agree with this: over time as more coins are minted the relative impact of the halving reduces and so I think it is reasonable to expect the effect of the halving to reduce over time - probably resulting in lower peaks and a "rounder" more smoothed top.
If you consider in the first epoch, 10.5 million coins were issued.
In the second epoch, half that, so 5.25 million - but that is still roughly a third of the whole available supply (total 15.75 million). Accordingly the impact of the first halving was large.
In the third epoch, half again so 2.625 million coins, 14% of the available supply (18.375 million)
In the fourth epoch (ie where we are now) 1.312 million coins will be issued, by the next halving that will amount to just 7% of the available supply (19.687 million).
So as each halving occurs its influence on the total supply will get smaller and smaller and so I would expect we will see a steady smoothing out of the halving impact, like a wave decaying over time.
That is a good explanation of the chart-pattern we have been seeing over the last year. The lack of an exponential peak was leading many observers to conclude that this bull run was only in an early stage. However that does not fit the pattern very well.
It would seem logical that, as the market matures (and stock/flow, halving influence is part of that maturity, as well as adoption) the chart patterns will evolve and change. There will still be waves, but they are changing and flattening.