Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
ivomm
on 23/11/2021, 16:39:03 UTC

I'm aware it has nothing to do with how much money is required to move the market etc, this is based on liquid supply as well as demand, but it's incredibly relevant to institutions. Many of which aren't able to touch an asset, or consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset, unless it's worth >$1 trillion. Others will be more conservative, they won't go near BTC until it's valued at $2 trillion, $3 trillion or even $10 trillion (private banks). Some will even be patiently waiting until it's worth Gold's $20 trillion, and won't touch it with a barge pole until then. State banks I imagine. The lower the risk required, the longer they will wait before adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Bare in mind very few institutions are currently using BTC in this manner so far, even if enough have already dipped their toes in the water.

My point was, when a certain valuation threshold is reached, there are certain institutions that will be forced into purchasing in order to reduce risk, hence $60K holding for so long earlier in the year imo. The market was overvalued but remained as such for 3 months around $50K-60K, much longer than many expected. Whereas previously consolidation at such overbought levels is unprecedented for BTC.

This post cointains some new and useful information, which I bolded. However, regarding the red coloured text I strongly dissagree.  There are several market indicators which are showing that the fair value of Bitcoin should be >60K. One is the adoption acceleration, measured by the new addresses and investors. The others are related to demand/supply, mining rewards, etc. As a proof we see that after only 6 months the same price level was reached with half the volume, i.e. this price is probably way lower than the fair price. Nobody knows the fair price, but it is somewhere between the last stable price and the blow-off top which can stand only a week or two. In our case this is >70K for sure. Not to mention that at the local bottom of 30K-40K we were below the current market cap of one of the longer living shitcoins  Wink So there is no way this to be the fair value, if this is what you are implying in your post.