And yet, very few have recovered the 50 BTC.
And yet, we cannot for a minute say that the other 50 BTC outputs which haven't been moved since they were mined are lost, since we have absolutely no evidence to support that claim.
For which incident does that go to? The one that says Craig Wright is a liar?
That was the main one I was referring to, yes.
The fact that they can be moved shows that they will be moved. Bitcoin supply is 21 million and not more than that but also not less than that.
It is less than that for a number of reasons. There are coins which have been provably burnt due to sending to unspendable outputs. There have been times miners have not claimed the full block reward, and those coins will be lost forever. There have also been a couple of bugs which have resulted in coins being lost forever. The total number of coins provably lost isn't huge, probably somewhere in the range of a few thousand. But just because a coin has not been moved in a long time does not mean it lost, and certainly not provably lost.
If you throw away your seed phrase and delete your wallet, your balance will remain the same, but the coins will never be moved again. You can't consider those into circulation.
But we have absolutely no way to quantify the number of coins lost in this way, nor do we have any way to confirm that the owner really has lost access like they say they have, nor do we have any way to confirm that access will not be recovered in the future. Therefore, those coins can and should be consider part of the supply.