It seems to me that it would be safer (and more convenient) to keep your crypto on an exchange (coinbase, blockfi etc) than cold wallet. Wouldn't the odds be greater that you mess up your cold storage than a large exchange being hacked or whatever (even if they are hacked, that wouldn't necessarily mean you would lose any coins, whereas if you are hacked that's a different story). I ordered a ledger nano X but it seems that the exchanges are still the way to go based on probabilities. What are your thoughts?
For me, I believe it is a general consensus about holding your Bitcoins in an Exchange wallet as being riskier than In your personal wallet that only you have the keys to and this is also dependant on the quantity. If you are holding some in an exchange wallet for trading, that will be fine but I don't see me Hodling all my BTC in exchange wallet.
If you plan to hold your bitcoin in long term, then you should keep it in your own cold storage because its more safe there than entrusting it even in reputable exchanges, smart scammers could still possibly find ways to steal your bitcoins when you least expect it.
However, putting just a small number of your crypto in an exchange is a good idea as long as its for short term only. Because the fact that most of the exchanges today are now centralized, then you should be able to perform KYC for legalization, and that they can also take control on your crypto.