Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
November's candle wasn't even bearish anyway, just a -7% body. It looks relatively indecisive with a bull wick as well as a bear wick... just saying.
Largely, I agree with you.
We could almost proclaim that November was largely flat.. especially read in the context of October.
I feel nothing, TBH.
I'm pessimistic that we're going to be sideways for quite some time, again.
Hope I'm wrong.
I'm pessimistic that we're going to be sideways for quite some time, again.
Hope I'm wrong.
Lots of respected analysts saying the bull run is over bro, the top was $69,xxx etc.
I’m fine either way, let’s see what happens. If we moon, I sell more. If we enter a bear market I buy back with a 50% or more discount, no problem.
I dunno man but I have a feeling this was not the top ($69k). I think that if we won't moon in December we will do it in Q1 2022.
So if we speak about possibilities:
$69k was the top - 10%
modest top ~$80k in December - 20%
face-melting top in Q1 2022 - 70%
All numbers and predictions are strictly SOMA. DYOR.
Holy fucking shit, serveria.
You gotta get ur lil selfie a wee bit more realistic than that, no?
If we read $69k as more or less the current price (even though we are really at $57k currently), then you are proclaiming only 10% chance that we do not breach $69k and 90% chance that we do go above it. I need some of what you are smokling, even though it is going to likely put me in a bad place and making bad decisions if I actually were to truly believe that there were 90% odds that we are going UPpity from here (or $69k for that matter).
In contrast.. look at my fantasy numbers that attempt to account for both timeline for the top and price level for the top in various different posts, and even at the time that I made those numbers, my odds for no more up (meaning down) were around 42%.. and surely I don't really see any facts that would materially change my numbers too much... and I thought that I was being overly bullish by maintaining around 47% odds of $100k or higher, but then when I look at your assertion(s), you make me look like a real woose with a puss... no homo.
above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
$800k to $1.5 million - nearly most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
$650k to $800k - aggressively bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
$450k to $650k - Optimistically highly bullish - about 7.75% odds
$200k to $450k - Moderately highly bullish - about 15.5% odds
$100k to $200k - mediocre bullish - about 16.5% odds
$80k to $100k - relatively bearish (not too bullish) - about 6% odds
$67k to $80k - the remainder of deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 4.5% odds
down from here ($67k as the top) - most bearish - but possible - about 42.5% odds
$800k to $1.5 million - nearly most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
$650k to $800k - aggressively bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
$450k to $650k - Optimistically highly bullish - about 7.75% odds
$200k to $450k - Moderately highly bullish - about 15.5% odds
$100k to $200k - mediocre bullish - about 16.5% odds
$80k to $100k - relatively bearish (not too bullish) - about 6% odds
$67k to $80k - the remainder of deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 4.5% odds
down from here ($67k as the top) - most bearish - but possible - about 42.5% odds
If you add up my numbers you will see that I have odds of supra $650k for this cycle at about 7.25%... so maybe odds for supra $550k would not be much more than 10%-ish.
I discuss how I got some of these numbers (surely partly just the best I can do based on what I think to be possible and attempts at fair assignments of odds).
I dunno man but I have a feeling this was not the top ($69k).
I'm with this guy:
I think that bitcoin was never stronger from fundamential point of view:
That's a good point (or lack thereof).. pun intended...