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Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 8 from 4 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
ivomm
on 08/12/2021, 12:47:38 UTC
⭐ Merited by LoyceV (4) ,JayJuanGee (2) ,AlcoHoDL (1) ,vapourminer (1)
The current price is soooo boring, that I decided to share some of my current thoughts. I know what Bitcoin means and what it will give to me and my family. I can describe it with one word: FREEDOM! Freedom not only from the salary slavery, but from all kinds of fears. And to live without a fear is something that nobody in this world can give it to me. No matter how rich I am, if my riches are obtained by the rules of the fiat system. I mean, I may have companies worth billions of $s and still live in a bungalow, because of taxes and other financial obligations. For these reasons and many more, my focus has become obtaining more Bitcoins, rather fiat savings in the bank.

Having said that, it requires a bit of spending related to escaping the salary slavery, buying a house, equipment and medical treatment. This is one of the bitter pills I had to swallow this year by selling part of my stash. The other bitter pill is that I wasn't aware in time to gather more coins. Of course, this is the case with most of us and I guess everyone finds a way to be content with the stash they have. I mean it always looks we are late, and so on. In reality, we are still early adopters. So, no matter what happens related to Bitcoin news, ups or downs, we should keep stacking those precious sats. This looks easy, but rememger mindurst.

I am sad for this guy, he was so happy to acuire the 10th coin and a few days later blew it all because he appreciated more the fiat savings than Bitcoin. The danger for us, who know what Bitcoin means, is similar - to be tempted to sell at the "top" of the cycle and rebuy at the "bottom" of the bear market. It sound so tempting, for example if we sold at 20K in Dec 2017 and rebought in 2018 at 3100, we would have had >6x more coins! And this thought was so depressing for me during the 3 year bear market. But there is nothing to be done about it. On the chart it looks so easy, but how many succeeded selling and rebuying with such a huge profit? The odds are much smaller than betting on a single number of a roulette in a casino. They are higher if we aim for a smaller profit like 10-20%, but does it looks fine betting 100% of our stash for, say a 25% chance of winning? This is only a rough estimation.

When we calculate the odds, we should take into consideration not only the chances of going up or down, which are around 50% in a bull market, but also whether we would nail the top and the bottom. We may expect a 20% drop, and it may turn out to be only 15%, which means we never return our selling amount. Hence the chances of increasing the stash in this way are getting much smaller. So this hope should be buried toghether with the hope of profiting from shitcoins or building a time machine and buying back in time (which has a slightly better odds than the shitcoins). The only way is to continue buying with the new income, although it looks stupid to buy higher than I sold. But there is an important difference: I am using my future fiat income, not the profit from the sell of Bitcoins. So, as long as I live and have an income, I will pursue a bigger stash. That's the only financial greed that is healthy in this world. Everything else is a mixture of slavery and fear. Not acceptable for me!