An interesting read from an OG.
Writes of caution - china vs US monetary pressures for three types of crypto investors:
For those who are deciding whether to allocate more fiat into crypto, it pays to wait. I don’t see money getting any free-er or easier.
Therefore, it pays to sit on the sidelines until the dust settles after a March 2022 or June 2022 Fed rate hike.
Watch out for a puke fest in risk asset prices should the Fed hike, followed by a quick resumption of zero interest rate policy and aggressive bond purchases.
When the Fed signals a return to business as usual, then it’s time to back up the truck.
For those who will maintain their macro crypto exposure, but must allocate amongst various coins, the coins that outperform will probably be Metaverse, Play-2-Earn, or NFT-related.
The success of these themes do not hinge on global monetary conditions, but an actual change in behavior of actors whose lives can be dramatically improved by adopting new forms of technology.
For those who like to trade around their crypto vs. fiat positions, I would err on the side of USD strength and the long bond performing well in the medium-term. Again, monetary conditions in the best case will be at a standstill, and in the worst case will become tighter.
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/circo-loco-53c4b2844c83