Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: How can collapse of USD affect bitcoin?
by
Ibian
on 24/03/2014, 13:20:47 UTC
How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?  

no...

Guys you are seeing the effects of the economic collapse on bitcoin already - we are in the early stages of the economic collapse, and, it is going down.

Just because btc theoretically could be used as everyone's store of value, doesn't mean it WILL. It is not big enough yet, and right now people are going to store wealth into something more historically reliable. When a crisis happens, people panic and revert back into a very oldschool state of mind. Speculative financial investments and new hightech paradigms are out. Gold, land, food, and survival gear are in.

For someone to use bitcoin as the store of value, they must first trust that it'll hold value and not collapse with the rest of the economy. With only a 4 year history there is no way to trust that this will be true, and it hasn't been tested in that type of crisis yet.

Most of btc's trading is in USD (CNY trading is mostly fake), and more importantly, most btc business/enterprise/innovation is based in the U.S., so if the U.S. or the U.S.D. collapses, it is a good case to cripple bitcoin. Bitcoin's price is held up mostly by two things, and neither of these are it being used as a store of value (like gold). It is mostly:
A) Speculator buy-ins to ride price trends.
B) The underlying businesses/ecnonomy that bitcoin is used for.
Both of these will likely suffer due to an economic collapse, and most of the support for bitcoin will be lost. This will likely outweigh those trying to use bitcoin as a store of value.

Instead of a pressure to get into bitcoin, what we have has a pressure to get OUT of bitcoin, and a reduced demand. Sure, there may be more dollars, which should theoretically raise the btc/usd ratio. The problem is, that people need ALL of these dollars. This is due to:
A) The very same inflation we're talking about
B) Needing to do extra emergency spending due to the crisis, including

1. Food/Water
2. Shelter
3. Land
4. Guns
5. Precious metals
6. Extra spending just to have fun before the apocalypse and enjoy the dollars while they still have value.
7. Arrangements to relocate to foreign countries

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...



If anyone is wonder why my sentiments have been annoyingly bearish over the past month, it is not just because of charts and squiggly lines.
How did i know tera would be a negative nancy  Roll Eyes

Don't listen to bankers you idiot. And I'll bet any amount you like that the price will not have gone to double digits when your 45 days are up.