Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Comparing bitcoin halvings - 2012 to 2020
by
tertius993
on 15/12/2021, 16:28:37 UTC
@OPs prediction for 2022 is likely but I'm looking forward after the next halving by 2024.
2024 and next halving is too far away. We either continue on the same cycle trend which means price has a lot more to gain before it starts crashing down or this marks the end of the 4-year cycles in which case we are still going to see rises but not nearly as much. $100k by first half of 2022 would my guess in second scenario.

Re. the bit in bold - I don't agree.  The purpose of the analysis on the OP was to try to model the halving cycle trend and forecast what this cycle would look like if that trend continued - that's what led to the "prediction" - if the trend continues we'll see about $77k in June.

(I hesitate to call it an actual prediction, as its just extrapolating forward from a couple of data points.)

Personally I don't think there is a real trend here and each "cycle" (if there really is such a thing) is as likely to resemble another one as not.