My favourites in every path are:
Path A: Wales would defeat Austria and Ukraine would do the same against Scotland. And after a Wales - Ukraine matchup, Wales would manage to qualify for the World Cup.
Path B: Russia would beat Poland and Czech Republic would do it to Sweden. And after a Russia - Czech Republic matchup, Russia would manage to qualify for the World Cup.
Path C: Portugal and Italy would succeed in defeating their opponents. And after a Portugal - Italy matchup, Italy would manage to qualify for the World Cup.
There is still a long time ahead until the matches of course but this is my first prediction for now. After seeing the squads of the teams, things would be clearer.
I mostly agree with your opinion but surprises are always possible.
I watched Russia in the matches against Slovakia and Croatia and Russia was very weak in those matches and showed nothing but good defense.
Since they will have to beat someone in these qualifiers, and not just defend themselves, I do not give them a great chance. I also think that Sweden is better than the Czech Republic and that they will eventually be the winner of Group B.
The finals of Group C will be played in Portugal which will be a small but perhaps decisive advantage for Portugal.