That's about where I'm at, give or take. But I've seen a lot of other claims, some obvious bullshit, some less so in either direction so I'm limiting my confidence in my stance. Certainly, government claims have backed off from what was originally being said (though the propaganda soundbites are still hanging about in the zeitgeist because it's easier to get people to believe a lie/falsehood than to disbelieve it once they've internalized it).