Italy really got surprising results in the World Cup Qualifiers. But they are still a very strong team. And as we are talking about the chance to join the World Cup now, I expect them to improve their performance a lot compared to before. They would eliminate North Macedonia easily. But let's say that they have a matchup against Portugal in the final round of the playoffs, then things are going to get really interesting. But I still believe in Italy to advance.
It is normal for Italia to perform better in the final stages of major competitions than in qualifying. Even so, this qualifying didn't go so well.
Either way, although I prefer Portugal, I believe it's Italy that we'll see in Qatar.