Frankly, I don't get what he is saying... What means clarify "100k avg this cycle & regression analysis" ?


The only thing I can take away is:

Within 1sd range is sufficient, now.  Which essentially means no need for a 100k average anymore.  

I give him that: the model would still be useful in some ways.

But judging from my basic statistics skills, this s2f model can not be valid with an avg <100k.
Seems to me in order dodge that problem, he now allows a max error of 1sd.

I ask myself: why is he clinging to this model so intensely?  Does he fear a loss of reputation?
I'd think moving goal posts constantly harms reputation far more than admitting a model's failure.  And the 100k avg hasn't even been invalidated yet...

I conclude... he seems far more bearish than before.  Which is a great basis for a 2022 face ripping BTC volcano explosion  

Btw
Happy Christmas guys n gals