[edited out]
Otherwise, $100K-150K for no blow-off top, simply reaching the logarithmic growth upper band and reversing.
I don't really have any major problem with this kind of scenario ending up playing out because it is still very profitable for me, personally.
One of my problems with the considering of such scenario to be reasonable remains that it just does not seem to reflect bitcoin's history very well, and it does not even seem to fit very well into a kind of "smoothing of tops" kind of depiction of bitcoin as a maturing asset class... and maybe that ends up being part of the rub (the crux of it) that I have with these kinds of smoothing top depictions of bitcoin in that there seems to be some kind of built presumption that bitcoin is sufficiently maturing as an asset class in order to really meaningfully be considered in that kind of a way.. which I really have some difficulties accepting that as a very likely scenario (even though I understand and appreciate that any kind of scenario could end up playing out, even a kind of $100k to $150k whimpy top scenario as does seem to be amongst your favorites, even if you are reluctant to admit it... hahahahahahaha

).
I'm not suggesting that closing the year below $48K would leave to sub $40K, but would likely be a catalyst for some sub $46K prices to return, like $44K and $42K I imagine.
Surely we have each expressed our views on this. I don't have anything further that I want to add regarding my earlier assertions. Maybe for you it matters more in terms of your attempts to trade when you see what you believe to be some kind of convincing tradable pattern, and for me, it's a big so what, in terms of my not changing my orders either way...