Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 01/01/2022, 18:10:36 UTC
Probably my main criticism would be the presumption that the upwards slope is flattening as much as you are depicting it to do or that it is inclined to do..

I'm not depicting that the upwards slope is flattening, or presuming such a idea. Bitcoin's price has depicted such a fact, no-one else. Either that, or logarithms are a failed form of mathematics, despite being universally accepted since the 17th century. It's been developed over the centuries but otherwise remains a relatively simplistic equation, and yet to be proved wrong. Nuff said.

You can proclaim it as maths and sciences until you are blue in the face, but I see that your chart has upside limitations on king daddy of about $280k until the early part of 2023 and your more drawn out chart does allow the amounts to continue to rise, and it is not exactly easy to read what those limitations into late 2025 and even 2026/2027 would be, but those limits seem to be quite a bit more restricted than I would consider them to be.  One thing about locking in a chart would be that the chart is what it is at that particular time, but I imagine if our lillie fiend, aka king daddy, ends up performing too much at the top of the parameters in the chart, then such parameters will be shifted up in later charts.. and the same is true with the range that appears to be narrowing.. they can be tweaked to account for the subsequent data.    If you were able to zoom in on 2023 to 2027, I would be interested to see those numbers more clearly, and I will bet that my opinion of our range is broader and my opinion about the upside is higher, and I could give less than two shits about your supposed math and sciences that are supposedly driving your supposed version of truth.

By the way, just in regards to what appears to be your chart's only going up to $280k by early 2023, I will say that my latest rendition of probabilities and prices on December 16, does not contain $280k exactly because I have $220k to $440k as a range depicted therein, but you can add up the numbers, and I have my rendition of supra $440k to be 14.5% that would be before 2023.. but I have a bit of waffling that asserts a 95.5% chance that our top of this cycle plays out by the end of 3rd quarter 2022... so probably there would be some need to put my timeline in there too which would likely reduce my assertion of 14.5% odds for supra $440k before 2023.,. and if you look at my supra $220k numbers, I have an additional 14.5% added for that, so supra $220k has something like 29% odds before 2023.. with that same kind of percentage reduction to account for my 4.5% odds that the top of the peak could happen after 3rd quarter 2022.

My point is not to proclaim myself as any kind of guru, but just to highlight that my rendition of numbers have way smaller than non-zero odds to depict BTC's price going above the $280k that appears to be a ceiling that is in your chart for early 2023... and so maybe verbally, you might assert that there could be a spike above the chart limits or even on either side of the depicted range, which we do have some periods in which there are short-lived spikes that go outside of the range of your chart.. and so if BTC were to get stuck in the higher end of the range of your chart for longer periods, then maybe the range or the limits could end up getting adjusted... Maybe in the end we are not saying a whole hell of a lot differently because I would not even be proclaiming the really higher numbers to be sustainable?  For example my depiction of $800k to $1.5million and then my depiction of above $1.5 million for this cycle only add up to about 2.5% odds, so they would seem pretty unlikely to happen, and for sure I would consider something like that to not be sustainable and likely to have a 85%-ish correction.. but really does not seem to be within the parameters of acceptable within your chart at all.... so let's take the most extreme of something like a supra $1.5 million peak that ends up happening towards the end of 2022 and maybe early 2023, then within the next year we end up getting an 85% correction for a period of time would bring BTC prices down to something like $225k.. and then we go from there in terms of how long a recovery might take, and your chart does not seem to allow that, even though mine only puts such a scenario at less than half a percent, and so maybe in that regard, I am proclaiming difference and the defiance of your supposed maths and sciences that don't really seem to allow for something like that, even if it is a long shot scenario.