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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
tertius993
on 06/01/2022, 09:15:21 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Just thinking aloud here, god awful price. Really looks like someone is just trying to push the market down time and time again. In the mean time on-chain data is still pretty positive, how long can this divergence last I wonder. Keep thinking we should see a move in January at least, but the price isn't making much sense to me anymore.

I don't know, wasn't the 2013 top in November and the 2017 top in December, that would place the next top in January.
I'm not ready to give up the four year cycle theory just yet, If we still haven't had a blow of top in march I'll abandon it, but not before that.

If your "four year cycle theory" is based on the halving cycle, then you need to allow for the fact that the halvings aren't exactly four years apart AND that the subsequent highs and lows are taking longer and longer to take effect as the proportion of coins affected reduces.

See this thread, for a longer analysis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0