It's all true about no or diminishing cycles, but then it is difficult to find pivots.

Maybe go by oversold conditions, but you could still be off by quite a bit.
The best policy is to not sell much for a long time. It worked for AAPL, GOOGL, even MSFT and it should work even better for bitcoin.

All schemes that include buy/sell every thousand are pitiful.
Buy in oversold conditions, sell (if you must) in overbought conditions.
That said, those situations might still carry on for extra 20-30%, so achieving an absolute top/bottom is a rarity, but try we must.