I have said it many times before, but I want to say it again.  And add a little current thoughts.

-I think "cycles" are becoming a thing of the past for Bitcoin.

-Bitcoin "cycle thinking" led to the six figure predictions, which combined with the "end of the year" effect led to all kinds of predictions being made about 12/21.
 
-Now the cycle theorists are revising their theories, and many are coming to the sad conclusion that we have actually done the top this time around.

-This is causing some "I'm a little too late but I am going to do it" sorts of selling amongst "hodlers".

That is happening right now.  Of course in the midst of one of the most strange macro backdrops the world has ever seen.  And I believe a significant portion of the selling hodlers are going to get to experience max pain in the following way:  Just as they were expecting a bigger top in this "cycle" they are likewise predicting another "bitcoin winter".  Not everyone is there yet, but lots are from my personal sampling of the twitter/reddit and yes bitcointalk space.

But just as a large part of the hodler herd miscalculated the "cycle top" they are now miscalculating the potential bottom. 

I predict that will underwhelm in a similar fashion.  Some people will make the NEXT mistake as well in announcing that the cycle is not over yet after all and we are on our way to the blow off top we expected to be here for XMAS.

Now, I think we might see something that looks like a 2013-14 double top cycle, but I think what we are more likely to see is a continued loss of the extreme cycles based volatility. In fact, I think it is entirely possible we see everyone's most important (but arbitrary) 100k price level sometime in 2022 (or maybe not), and though we will almost certainly see something a little frisky happening whenever we DO cross that threshold I still think the big surprise we are waiting to see is the lack of any significant "winter".   I think we are seeing those blow offs and brutal 80-90% bears headed towards being over.  A thing of the past. There will still be plenty of volatility, but I think it's not as deep or high, and possibly a little more quickly oscillating.

Along with the loss of those bipolar swings we are also giving up the unbelievable gains we saw since 2009.  I think we still easily have a 10x or a 100x and more in the cards for the future... but this also pales in comparison of what the years looked like while we were bootstrapping.

And it SHOULD be this way.  We are still "early" and there is a lot to gain by getting in RIGHT HERE.  But nothing compared to what we went through during the whipsaw years.  Half million dollar bitcoin is just a 10x-ish from here.  Some of this is reflected in the popcorn markets around dogcoins and NFTs and the like.  People want the bitcoin 30000x cargo cult plane to land again... THIS TIME they will be ready!  When in reality another 10x or even 100x in the relative short term in Bitcoin is still a real possibility... life changing gains even if you bought your first coins TODAY (though to get more you have to risk more nowadays of course).

So, I think some hodlers get burned trying to catch the bottom of the "coming winter", just like many were burned by "500k by conference day" type shit.

One last thing.  None of this means any disrespect to people selling recently.  Either to diversify, fund life things, or just avoid having to live through another drawdown like 2017-2020.  There is nothing wrong with wanting to lock in gains for really ANY reason.  Though defining what "locking in gains" really means is a different essay entirely.  But, I just think the idea that we will continue to see a market that looks like the first 10 years is terribly wrong.

NOW if my bottom call (not really, I still think there is more chance we break through it) of 42.5 will just hold I will pour myself a little dram of whiskey.  If not?  Meh.  Maybe not a "winter", but a little cold for my tastes indeed!