Unfortunately there are no real safe bets in sport games, except if the game is rigged, but how will we ever find out if a game is manipulated. I like your approach to bet on the favorite. In the German Bundesliga I am doing the same betting on either Bayern or Dortmund. If the odds are around 1.40 and below it's a good way to make some profits. In the past I was more risk friendly and looked for high payout bets but in the long run it didn't really pay off. Smaller but more steady profits is better approach for me. Any high risk bet I would only consider in very small amounts.