Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Bitcoin is a commodity market ?
by
IadixDev
on 10/01/2022, 15:49:03 UTC
Who said that coins are supposed to be frequently moved instead of sitting there for years? There's nothing in Bitcoin's protocol that could incentivize that. The only reason to move coins to new address is if there's a protocol upgrade featuring new address format, which doesn't happen often.

There is no direct incentivie to it, but as i understand it from the original discussion it seem to me the only way bitcoin can really gain long term value is using it as a medium of exchange, if everyone just hoard their coin in a wallet without motion, the long term value is limited.

found another interesting post related to the topic

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415


Contrary to the paradox of thrift argument you present, collecting bitcoins and saving them with hopes of earning purchasing power through deflation is not a bad thing.  It will allow for the pooling of bitcoin capital and make purchases of larger capital investments possible.  In the future, there might even be bitcoin banks that lend out saved bitcoins with market-set interest rates, thereby diminishing the effects of hoarding.  All this wonderful saving, however, comes at a price: delayed gratification of present desires.  From the perspective of the would-be saver, the question will always be denying present desires to purchase real tangible assets now versus the future possibilities of purchasing more later.  This time preference naturally varies with people and in different circumstances.

Given the fact that bitcoins are by their electronic nature easily divisible, prices will be able to easily adjust to deflationary pressures.  If too many are saving, prices will fall and the rate of interest will go down.  This encourages demand (lower prices) and decreases the desire to save (less interest).

XC

Quote
Excellent analysis, xc.

A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases.  In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.

In the absence of a market to establish the price, NewLibertyStandard's estimate based on production cost is a good guess and a helpful service (thanks).  The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost.  If the price is below cost, then production slows down.  If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more.  At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price.

In later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around.

At the moment, generation effort is rapidly increasing, suggesting people are estimating the present value to be higher than the current cost of production.

I need to read more, but already as much as i see reference to merchent, transaction, and regular thing, i never see a mention of the merit of hoarding it as something that would really add long term value to bitcoin.