Real Madrid overtook Barcelona last season but lost 2 points to Atlético 
I do not think that deep historical background has any meaning in a particular situation - Atletico and Barcelona lost the competition this season and are not dangerous for Real now. Sevilla is formally close and may even overtake Real, but the chances of this are extremely small, the bookmakers which are responsible for their forecasts with money estimate the chances of Sevilla as very small.
I would not be so confident in Real Madrid. Madrid know how to create problems for themselves out of the blue. Nobody is safe from loss of points. And as you can see, Real Madrid often loses them in games with weak opponents. In addition, the Champions League is ahead, and the substitutes at Madrid cannot fully replace the main players. I do not think that deep historical background has any meaning in a particular situation - Atletico and Barcelona lost the competition this season and are not dangerous for Real now. Sevilla is formally close and may even overtake Real, but the chances of this are extremely small, the bookmakers which are responsible for their forecasts with money estimate the chances of Sevilla as very small.Real knows how to create problems for itself, you are absolutely right - this is especially clearly seen after today's match with Barcelona, which Real was supposed to win in regulation time, but due to excessive self-confidence, they had to play an additional 30 minutes. But still, if we are talking about the championship, then at a distance these small flaws are felt weaker and the most important thing is that the opponents are even worse
Therefore, I do not worry about the championship, even if at some point Sevilla can get a couple of points ahead of Real.