This logic is always moot, its like if i say i will start to hoard rocks, supply and demand the value is subjective someone is going to buy it at 100k. My rocks are like no other rocks. Does it looks like a sound logic to you ?
The fact that this behavior was anticipated this the very beginning, seen by satoshi hal finney and other since the very beginning show that its no different from any other market that existed before since market exists.
Either it takes off as a currency spent to buy good or it dies in the long run, or just become a niche for gamblers and crazy speculators spending their day on trading chart trying to figure when to enter and leave at the expanse of others in a null sum game.
bitcoin and golds value is not just 'its a currency or jewellery. its value is also from its cost of acquisition
if you could mine gold or pick up rocks for just $1 in your back yard. and anyone could do the same. no one would pay $2000 a ounce for it.
because gold costs over $900 to mine. thats why people pay atleast $900. and no one is foolish to sell gold for less than $900.
the reason why gold cant escape above a $2.2k ATH and bitcoin cant escape above a $69k ATH is because everyone on the planet can mine for less than a certain premium and so would stop buying at a certain peak because its cheaper/more convenient to mine.
gold has a value window based on acquisition cost of $900-$2.2k, bitcoin has a value window of $30k-$70k
yes if bitcoin becomes useless as a currency then the desire to maintain bitcoin will drop. miners will want to maintain(mine) something else. and slowly with only a few miners left getting high% of the reward for less effort. the costs come down and thus the value comes down. which is why having utility is important. but its the secondary to its underlying value(cost of acquisition)
And historically all currencies arose from some kind of commodity backing. Its not even the way its used but how its supposed to behave as a market.
The two kind of people i saw saying this model is ok are :
1. People seeing the pyramid scheme potential rubbing their hand seeing they are going to make millions as eraly adopter. As of today most of the post i see on this board are people still behaving as early investors in a pyramid scheme.
2. People who are more sound and rational saying that it doesnt make sense in the long run to use it this way, that early adopter can behave like this and it was more or less on purpose to give an incencitive to early adopters but the only way that make sense in the long term is the adoption as a currency with a dynamic roughly appraoching a commodity market.
Otherwise its only people playing hit and run with enter/exit strategy to extract a quick profit out of it which cannot last for ever and makes unusable as a currency which is the only way forward in the long run.
again you say "commodity"
a commodity is a raw material used to create other products
oil=fuel/plastic, beef=burgers/steak, wheat=bread/cereal
gold is yes a commodity but its also an asset. gold sits on 2 markets.
dont confuse golds mining/currency reserve/investment (asset class) with its jewellery/electronics(commodity class)
as for saying its a pyramid scheme(facepalm) well your listening to the wrong 2 people. whichever one calls it a pyramid scheme. stop listening. and instead learn:
no one gets recurring income from the sell of bitcoin.
there is no 'team' of downstream or upstream lineage of investors
its not like when someone sells coin. he then has to pay 10% to his supervisor, and 8% to their supervisor
who ever owns the coin and sells the coin keeps the funds for the sell. there is no pyramid 'sharing' of revenue structure in bitcoin