Well lightning network is different than bitcoin its not to put a coin in the franky box, but its much more complicated than bitcoin, bitcoin is fundementally simple, 3 people in the world can install a node, and they will be able to run the network, have an address, mine it and make paiment in a secure manner.
The Bitcoin node software (and generally: all digital wallet software solutions) hides a lot of complexity. There is also Lightning software with a similar usability. I don't consider that a problem for adoption.
Plus LN wouldnt change much to the problem of volatlity and speculation games. [...] And i dont think the "scaling problem" is the issue at least for e commerce a delay of even 1h is still mangeable, even paypal can have similar delay.
I don't say it can directly "solve the problem", but it can lead to more acceptance by merchants and users, and thus lead to the virtuous cycle I described in the last post, where Bitcoin can stabilize and slowly become more usable as a currency, and thus "sustain its value" over time. Not only because it's instant, but also because it saves lots of transaction fees (there are still fee peaks where you pay >$5 if you want an 1-day confirmation, and this problem will probably increase in the future).
Even worse: without LN or other scaling solutions like sidechains and statechains (which are still in prototype/idea stage) Bitcoin won't support an increase of more than 50% in terms of transaction density compared with now. Layer-1-TPS, even if it could be increased to let's say 20 or 30, is simply too little for worldwide adoption as a currency. (And no, I don't want the 1 MB/4 MB block size rule to be removed. It is important to keep the network safe and open imo, but that's a completely different discussion).
I'm not an unconditional Lightning supporter, for example I support also
Paul Sztorc's sidechain ideas, but I think it is a big piece in the puzzle leading to Bitcoin adoption as a currency.
Even if the transactions volume is a problem for large scale adoption, already can see 75% - 95% of the volume is the speculative use on exchange from people expecting a high return on their stash, which is also what is driving the price up, and energy use for mining very high.
But even so the main problem i see is even let say tomorrow there is a real organic demand as a currency based on a sustainable economic value, then the price is going to rise, the hoarder are going to cash out and rise the price.
Meaning anyone who want to really pull an use as a currency has to pay the hoarders lords waiting for their lambo without bringing any value to the network which is currently maybe 90-95% of the economic value today.
And then you are still going to have the crazy price / sentiment roller coaster of people seeing this as an investement mostly depending on hype campaign and techno babble, price manipulation, bubbles and bursts and only wanting more of this. Waiting some third world country to crash their economy and adopt bitcoin to cash out their profits.
And lightning network or any scaling solution is not going to solve this.