Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: prediction on next diff increase?
by
davejh
on 26/03/2014, 05:22:28 UTC
A couple sites appear to be around 15%. I was hoping it would be less and with Antminer S2's hitting the market I don';t think this will change unless people stop hashing with old miners. opinions.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I was looking at this a couple of weeks ago and for most of the last year the average hashing rate increase has held surprisingly steady. This rate has slowed a little in the last two months but I suspect that all of the 28 nm ASIC designs will actually see things jump back up. As an example, over the last few days it's pretty clear that some significant new capacity has hit the system.

http://hashingit.com/5-the-bitcoin-runaway-mine-train


The growth rate has not been at all steady. The graph on that block post is very misleading. Here is a better one:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png


I'm not sure what's misleading about it? The data is taken directly from the stats on blockchain.info and plotted on a log scale. The trend line is an attempt to put a best fit on the numbers and it was a surprisingly good fit. Certainly there are other ways that that line could be plotted but the point was to see how closely this approximates an exponential growth pattern and predict what the trend might look like.