I believe that Raja_MBZ was presuming something very similar back in May/June when he sold most (if not all) of his BTC at $55k.. but the 200-week average was lower than $14k at that time.  I am starting to think that Raja_MBZ was also not a very good example because I had stated that he got into BTC BIG around that same time, and the next thing you know he was saying that he sold everything.. so largely, he seems to be trying to find an entry point rather than having had gotten in below $10k (for example) and made a killing..

Anyhow, for sure we have had both downs and ups since May 2021, and we have not gotten very close to the 200-week moving average, since then either.. even though we did get close to the 100-week moving average a couple of times in the past 8 months (in about May/June/July.. and then just now in recent times, since the 100-week moving average is around $31k currently).

In other words, you should even see from that linked above information that the 200-week moving average does not get met by the spot price very frequently or very easily.. so your assertion that BTC has to go below the 200-week moving average before it can be capable of going up is almost the opposite of what happens, is likely to happen or needs to happen....    It's like you are presuming that we are in a bear market.. and sure maybe there is nothing wrong with that, even though it's a pretty BIG (and likely premature) presumption.

Sure the spot price could go below the 200-week moving average, but it seems quite a ways from anything as close as high in likelihood as you seem to be making it out to be.