You should already realize that bitcoin is not simple.

I agree with you that it is possible that no blow-off will occur this time; however, there is a little problema with human nature and greed..

the bearwhale twats cannot help their lil selfies...

they manipulate the BTC price down lower and longer than it should be, and wham, bam, thank you ma'am.. another blow off top has just occurred.

I would not be too quick to write it off, even if it is possible that it will not happen, the odds are not really in your favor... and I am not even giving any shits.. because my finances and my psychology is fine (prepared) either way, but that does not mean that bitcoin is not going to end up doing what it tends to do.. which is get out of control..

again.. I don't give any shits about the extra money that I will be making in such scenario because I already have enough.. but the problem is that there is a kind of underlying situation that we have going on and that is the greatest wealth transfer in history.. so it seems quite implausible to be conjecturing that everything is going to go fine, smooth and dandy.. which is about the ONLY thing that does not happen in bitcoinlandia.

In other words, volatility is inevitable, including volatility to the upside whether we are prepared for such upside volatility or not.


I don't buy it for one minute that price follows hashrate.. good luck with that theory..

By the way, miners speculate on price in terms of their incentives to mine, so sure they might even front run their hashrate out of anticipation of which way the price is going.. but they do not control price, even though you and some other believe in that theory (your not the only one for sure.. but not this cat)...


I will grant that some of the China dynamics have been quite interesting in the last year.. but I doubt that it has really delayed much of anything.. and king daddy hardly gives any shits.. .tick tock next block.. etc etc.. .. in spite little tales about China fucking things up and blah blah blah.. it only served as an excuse for panic and the shaking of weak hands.. yet in the end, it did go to show how bitcoin has a pretty damned strong self-correcting mechanism for anyone who wants to strategize attacking it in various ways.. good luck.. you are going to need to use a lot of resources.. so sure, it might not be the last time that the BTC network is attacked.. and for sure there was some learning that came from such China attack situation including that some miners have been reconsidering their geographical distribution of their services and where they get their supplies in order that they will be in a position to be more profitable upon other attack situations.  yes, a variety of miner preparations in which some miners are going to put themselves in better positions than others to withstand and sustain an attack, and surely the amount of profits in the last year attracted a lot of miners too.. who will likely get washed out if the competition gets more fierce.. but will they last a year or two before competition gets more fierce? or will they get weeded out in a shorter timeframe?


Yes.. miners will reference some general trends, but they will also reference their own situation including how long they have been in mining and what equipment and facilities that they already have including its profitability and if there are ways to make it more profitable... .From my perspective there are surely some lagging indicator aspects that are connected with mining (even though you consider it as some kind of a leader..), but I surely do find it to be a good sign that miners continue to come into bitcoin mining and causing the hashrate and difficulties to continue to go up.. even if there have been some down periods.. but even the lower hashrates and difficulties of the period in 2021 did not disincentivize miners from continuing to mine, build their mining systems and to establish businesses around bitcoin.. which surely is not bad for bitcoin fundamentals..and likely inspires confidence in the bitcoin price whether it ends up playing out that way in the short-to-medium term or not.

By the way, I started talking about how I did not consider that BTC's spot price would be meeting the 200-week moving average any time soon and a tentative theory that the 200-week moving average may well go up another 3x before spot price meets it.. not easy to say with any certainty how these matters will play out.. but I am no where close to buying your theory (and others have made similar claims) that mining and hash rate are in any way leading in the directly indications of how much BTC prices might move in one direction or another or the extent to which spot price may well continue to stay above the 200-week moving average.