Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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Hmm, i don't even believe in any "miner costs control price" dynamics. It can only have a tiny fraction of influence on the price, i'm not that dumb
Seems like the good ol' misunderstanding, but i am not too surprised, because i picked out a wee aspect of a complex system, where one output parameter results in the property "price".
But the initial thought was quite simple and might have mislead you in believing that i look at the market in a simple way. Well, sometimes i do, when i try to explain bitcoin to noobs (rarely) but that's a whole different story. To be honest, my understanding of market details and their dependencies is very limited, but every now and then some new understandings click into place, and your detailed posts about the matter also contribute to this more often than not.
It seems that we are all guilty of this to some degree... I mean for sure a considerable amount of analysis likely needs to be done in order to really discuss the various influences upon BTC price and how those influences might both be traded off and even manipulated in the short term. Frequently, simplified explanations will end up playing out, whether we are talking with a newbie on the street (and trying to build up to what we might be trying to describe), or even if we might be dealing with someone who is more sophisticated but is coming to the opposite conclusion. For sure people involved in bitcoin mining have some decent knowledge about bitcoin technicalities, but if start to make proclamations about the price based on an incomplete set of facts or logic, one possible retort back might be to use the same superficial information and just assert that they are full of shit.. without really backing up the claim regarding why they are full of shit.. because sometimes none of us have time to be getting into detailed backing up of counter-claims when the first claim was poorly backed up in the first place.
Ain't nobody got time for that.
To AverageGlabella - the only regret anybody has on this forum is that they did not buy more Bitcoin at (insert any date here)
So very true. That's my only regret too. Had I invested what I could have invested at the time I bought my first BTC (2015), I would now own about an order of magnitude (10x) more coins than I currently own.
This is a lesson for all Bitcoin noobs that read this: don't hesitate, invest a generous amount. Don't make the same mistake many of us did...
These days, I like to label such actions as being sufficiently aggressive within your means... so the better that you understand your situation, the more you will understand how aggressive you can be without transgressing too far into a kind of gambling (rather than investing) mode.
In the good ole days, maybe $10 per week might be aggressive. These days gotta at least start at $100 per week (absent some real cashflow lim limitation issues).
Also, I moved my recommendation for the allocation range for getting started from between 1% and 10% up to between 1% and 25%... of course, the more you study the matter, the higher you might be able to go within the range or even might be able to graduate to levels above the range.
I have my cold wallet stash which I add to periodically and use Bitcoin as my savings and deposit account adding spare fiat when available and only taking some out when absolutely needed. Loans are still cheap and the first call for unexpected day to day outgoings.
The highlighted part is the most important for a HoDLer. Never sell any amount of BTC, unless you will immediately use the fiat to pay for something you absolutely need. Few understand this. Selling your precious BTC just to fill a bank account with fiat is a stupid move in the long term. You may feel you have "locked in some profits" in the short term, especially when there's a dip (like now), but when Bitcoin reaches and exceeds 6 digits and beyond, you will realise the stupid mistake you've made.
Lot's of truth there.. You can also consider the spend and replace method.. which allows you to sell to get what you need... and then to attempt to replace what you sold within a reasonably expedited fashion.. and surely it may take a long time to do the replacement, especially if the amount was high.. and maybe you will never be able to completely replace what you spent, especially if the BTC price ends up moving up in the meantime.