I do gather that you, richie, are inclined to follow the price follows hashrate nonsense,
Let me stop you right there. That is by no means the case and I don't believe I have ever stated anything that could even be construed as such.
As far as I'm concerned, we're in a process where Bitcoin is trying to find where its price matches its value (and I believe we are quite a long way yet) via the market discovery process. Along the way that will be moderated by a variety of mechanisms which I won't go into here but a little logic shows that this can only be accomplished via a volatile process (how volatile it needs to be is an interesting question but the actuality is that it has been violently volatile). This process seems to be fairly well divorced from the hashrate.
Now, the mechanism for hashrate seems to be "If Bitcoin is profitable, buy more equipment". That does potentially link hashrate and price (but not in the direction that the opinion you incorrectly ascribe to me would suggest). However, as Bitcoin as near as dammit always been profitable, the restricting factor has been equipment availability which has lead to a total divorce between the two concepts. I will say that on at least one occasion, miners have surprised me by being willing to be patient for future profits rather than following pragmatism but they surely had good reason and that doesn't really affect things much.
Well I am glad that you stated your position more specifically, and surely I am not proclaiming that any of us will be able to articulate the many ways that bitcoin price moves in one direction or another whether we are talking about short-term or long term, but those fairly simplified assertions that BTC price is lead by hashrate seem quite wanting in terms of their explanations and I am glad that are not falling in that camp.
For sure, even if we might be asserting that BTC price does not necessarily follow hashrate or mining costs, for sure, for whatever reasons, there are going to be short-term correlations, and for sure a decently large numbers of miners are motivated by either current price or their speculations about future price, whether short-term, long-term or speculating about various aspects of operating their business that might also have some relationships to BTC price movements.. and for sure uncertainties too.. that are not just about BTC price, directly - such as energy costs or like you mentioned, cost and availability of some kinds of equipment or parts.