Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by fillippone (3)
Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy 
EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up!
I am quite risk averse.
That's why i almost only hodl.
Also, this is the shortest answer to JJG's question about why i am mostly trading small ranges with my micro "play money" stash, he asked about one to two weeks ago. Good that i can put a checkmark to that on my todo list as well.
I'm generally bullish, in case you didn't notice
I am glad that you pre-emptively struck with your unsolicited explanation regarding why you sold recently (with your parts of parts of your "micro" "play money")
hahahahahaha
By the way.. my lowest sell amount is currently set for in the $40ks and then $41ks.. and then every thousand up from there.. have not sold anything in a very long time..,. so I believe that my $1k increments continue until the lower $60ks and thereafter they go to either $2,500 and then soonthereafter $3,333-ish.. $1k is too close.. except for the last year we have mostly been stuck in this kind of $29k to $69k range.. so I only barely got into $2,500 and $3,333 increments before having to revert back to $1k increments.
I recall in most of 2018, 2019 and 2020 I was in $500 increments.. so surely some graduation had taken place.... little by little, no?
Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all.
TL;DR
We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.
Side Note:
In light of so many words used in saying nothing...
OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up.
Should we start using the abbr. J1P???
Just asking...
TL;DR
We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.
Side Note:
In light of so many words used in saying nothing...
OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up.
Should we start using the abbr. J1P???
Just asking...
I watched it too.. and largely I was wondering what he was saying exactly, and even the various reporters were asking questions as if he was actually saying something.
Regarding your other point... Sure... have you ever seen Powel and JJG in the same room at the same time?
Good question.
I am not going to slip any meaningful clues.
Mums the word.
Your way of discussing several of the matters and your trade offs does cause me a decent amount of concern - especially in terms of your ability to HODL through potential tough times.
For sure, there is a lot of empirical evidence to show that lump sum investing has tended to pay off even better than DCA - especially when the buying was upon dips.. but we can never really know the extent to which a dip is over.. so there tends to be some value in having some strategies besides lump sum, such as an ability to continue to buy on further dips... otherwise you just have to HODL through the whole dip period, if it ends up coming and taking a long time to resolve...and hopefully you would not end up panicing in the meantime.
Personally, since you did a pretty decent lump sum investment, maybe you should plan to carry out a DCA plan at any time that the BTC price get's close to your buy-in price.. even if your DCA amount is ONLY $10 per week (maybe $100 per week would be better?).. it might give you some peace of mind if we ever go below your average buy price.
Usually the plan for having at least a 4-year plan would be that if you bought at the top of the cycle then you would still have pretty decent chances of at least being profitable after 4 years.. maybe not extremely profitable, but at least not in the red.. and there are no guarantees of that, either, even though BTC's investment thesis does seem to be quite a bit stronger now than it was 7-8 years ago.
Regarding cashing out, sure of course you might want to attempt to time tops somewhat, but you still gotta be careful about cashing out too much because where you going to put it that is better than BTC? You could consider cashing out more incrementally such as quarterly, yearly or some timeline variation that is comfortable, but you might need to be careful that you might end up taking out at the wrong times.. but sure if you cash out a quarter or a years worth of expected expenses, then that would likely be reasonable.
You know about the 4% per year theory regarding cashing out too, right? That has traditionally been the guidance for traditional investments, even though I do believe with BTC you could get away with larger percentages depending on how you value your holdings. Also, if you are planning not to cash out any BTC for 5 years, you do have 5 years to figure out those kinds of matters, but you could attempt to project out values and cash out plans in terms of best case scenarios, worse case scenarios and even medium case scenarios.. and for sure there is value to give some serious considerations to the worse case scenarios, even though if they are not really very likely it is better to have a way of keeping in mind a range of scenarios while focusing more of your attention on more likely scenarios and perhaps revisiting the projections from time to time to see if you might need to tweak them.
Regarding your cold storage, you should check them a few times a year to make sure that you understand your access and your recovery and if you might have back up ways to recover.. and once you go through the process a few times, you might be able to just do it once a year.. depending on how complicated that you have made it for yourself.. ..but for sure both complication and too much simplicity could be enemies.. so some kind of balance is going to be preferred.
thanks to you for being concerned enough with regards to me to offer this extraordinary guidance. I figure I will take your recommendation and do a DCA plan as you say. I think taking out $100 consistently that the value stays a little % underneath my target is smart to prevent me from getting hurt assuming it never arrives at the target I am focusing on.For sure, there is a lot of empirical evidence to show that lump sum investing has tended to pay off even better than DCA - especially when the buying was upon dips.. but we can never really know the extent to which a dip is over.. so there tends to be some value in having some strategies besides lump sum, such as an ability to continue to buy on further dips... otherwise you just have to HODL through the whole dip period, if it ends up coming and taking a long time to resolve...and hopefully you would not end up panicing in the meantime.
Personally, since you did a pretty decent lump sum investment, maybe you should plan to carry out a DCA plan at any time that the BTC price get's close to your buy-in price.. even if your DCA amount is ONLY $10 per week (maybe $100 per week would be better?).. it might give you some peace of mind if we ever go below your average buy price.
Usually the plan for having at least a 4-year plan would be that if you bought at the top of the cycle then you would still have pretty decent chances of at least being profitable after 4 years.. maybe not extremely profitable, but at least not in the red.. and there are no guarantees of that, either, even though BTC's investment thesis does seem to be quite a bit stronger now than it was 7-8 years ago.
Regarding cashing out, sure of course you might want to attempt to time tops somewhat, but you still gotta be careful about cashing out too much because where you going to put it that is better than BTC? You could consider cashing out more incrementally such as quarterly, yearly or some timeline variation that is comfortable, but you might need to be careful that you might end up taking out at the wrong times.. but sure if you cash out a quarter or a years worth of expected expenses, then that would likely be reasonable.
You know about the 4% per year theory regarding cashing out too, right? That has traditionally been the guidance for traditional investments, even though I do believe with BTC you could get away with larger percentages depending on how you value your holdings. Also, if you are planning not to cash out any BTC for 5 years, you do have 5 years to figure out those kinds of matters, but you could attempt to project out values and cash out plans in terms of best case scenarios, worse case scenarios and even medium case scenarios.. and for sure there is value to give some serious considerations to the worse case scenarios, even though if they are not really very likely it is better to have a way of keeping in mind a range of scenarios while focusing more of your attention on more likely scenarios and perhaps revisiting the projections from time to time to see if you might need to tweak them.
Regarding your cold storage, you should check them a few times a year to make sure that you understand your access and your recovery and if you might have back up ways to recover.. and once you go through the process a few times, you might be able to just do it once a year.. depending on how complicated that you have made it for yourself.. ..but for sure both complication and too much simplicity could be enemies.. so some kind of balance is going to be preferred.
I am going to try to avoid accessing my cold storage and I will only be checking that the recovery paper I have is in good condition and has not deteriorated. My process was the normal process and should not be hard to check 1 a year.
I know that guys here do different things, and several of us have described situations in which we had made our recovery a bit complicated and could have lost our funds due to our creation of complications.
I will say that one thing that I do is to divide my recovery seed into three parts and I keep two copies. So sure it is a little bit complicated, but I get worried, for example, if one of the locations is damaged by fire, water or something else and then I would not have a back up... so in that sense I keep some geographical separation. Maybe it is not a very big deal if you were to have only $1k to $10k of value, but historically even that $1k to $10k in value went up 100x.. .so $1K to $10k could have turned into $100k to $1million.. .. I remember having a certainly high amount on one of my hotwallets.. and kind of considered it NOT a Big deal, but between 2015 and 2017, prices went up 78x...so some of those hotwallet values became problematic (on the upside.. so for example, even $100 became $7,800 and even $1,000 became $78k).. luckily nothing happened before I finally did end up pulling those BTC/sats off line and putting the vast majority of those funds in an off-line location. I am not saying that I had those amounts, but still you get the idea that sometimes you might take smaller levels of security and then not really realize how much the value went up and then consider that maybe you need to up your security.
Even in this latest run.. we may well have had some guys who got sub $7k coins. and then when the price went up to nearly $70k.. those coins were 10x in value.. at least for a period of time... that was back in the good ole days when guys could more easily buy a whole coin in one shot.