I have been doing various things with coffee stirrers and crayons, and ~25k also looks like a good target for the drop from the giant head and shoulders considering it top portion.

So I think this theory has some pretty good possibility of happening.  Unfortunately that would also paint us a lower low... which seems kind of bad.  But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.

Of course I would still rather see a higher low and a third peak...  But, who knows?