Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status. In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "

maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

I don't consider it very helpful to be measuring from top to top, even though greater exponential runs do cause the 208-week moving average to move up at a greater pace.. and for sure the opposite is true, especially if the BTC price starts to get close to the 208-week moving average, then it is NOT going to be moving up as much per year. I would not expect anyone to project out and to get caught up on their numbers without attempting to monitor on a regular basis and also acknowledging that there might be some "in the best case scenarios going on."

Regarding a discussion about whether the top is in at $69k, you are correct that on December 16, I had projected that to be 45% odds of that having had already happened in 2021.. (you can see that here).. but even if we lock me into saying that I said that there were 55% odds that the top would be higher than $69k, on December 16, I was also saying that there were around 24% odds that the peak would be in the 1st quarter of 2022. It is quite likely that i need to change those numbers since we are almost half way through the 1st quarter of 2022.. and you are right that it would be quite a weird scenario if we were to get supra $69k and also a top in the 1st quarter of this year... so some of those kinds of scenarios are appearing more implausible with the passage of time.. especially 1st quarter ATH and finish of the cycle scenarios.

Although the rebel in me likes the idea of "fuck you status" it still has the intrinsic problem of being related to "money" in this context, to me status comes from who you are based on your actions, backing your claims, admitting mistakes, where the value is measured in truth and integrity.

I understand that in this thread, we frequently end up deviating beyond bitcoin and into financial, psychological and other kinds of motivations that guys might have in "getting their shit together" or otherwise considering ways to become better versions of themselves within starting places that they might have.

I am not even going to assert that those various other considerations (that you pointed out) should not be valid, but even you are going to have to admit that if we go down those kinds of paths, we are going to likely end up all over the place.. and for sure, even with more limited attempts at attempting to define and discuss something like fuck you status, we can get into a lot of tangents if we do not at least attempt to define it more narrowly and perhaps even within somewhat more broadly shared parameters.

Even before anyone here would really be able to define his/her own fuck you status, s/he has to engage in quite a few attempts to know himself/herself in terms of current financial situation and current psychology - and for sure, even considering something like Maslow's hierarchy of needs, some guys/gals might not even be ready to contemplate some of the self-actualization type ideas that you outline until they build some of their own foundational levels (and you don't even need to be poverty-stricken person to end up having to address some of the more basic needs.. and maybe even from time to time reverting back into having to consider some of those more basic needs when either macro-circumstances end up affecting you in ways that you had not expected and/or sometimes even failure to adequately and reasonably foresee and prepare might end up putting some guys/gals back into more basic struggles at a later time in life).