Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
If $33k already was the "capitulation", it was reached pretty early. Uncomfirmed, yet showing noticeable sell volume.
Feels bullish somehow.
Have a good #hodlsleep.
Feels bullish somehow.
Have a good #hodlsleep.
I don't know how you would presume early?
We have had nearly three months of down.. and for sure at some point it is going to need to stop, whether we see some kind of traditional reversal or something more whimpy. That $33k that you mention represents a bit over a 52% correction.. that has been followed by an earlier 56% correction.. so that surely seems like enough down for me, and I see no reason that we need to have any kind of capitulation in order for the momentum to resume UPpity... sure anything can happen, but we do not have to have "down before up."
In other words, there does not have to be capitulation for the bottom to be "in" - even though some peeps do appreciate a more clear sign that the bottom is "in" but that is NOT always how price dynamics play out in bitcoinlandia.
Right, sure it's not always how price dynamics play out.
I presumed early, in terms of the ol' cycle blowoff/long lasting bear grind down like 2017-2019. The market dynamics turned nuts in 2021, china exiting, ecologic mining FUD. "This time it's different", you remember?
I do sense that you are ongoingly feeling that BTC has been overly suppressed.. and "we should be at x price rather than some fraction of x"
I have to admit you're wrong.
That's a pretty bold stance.
It is what it is, no? I mean who is to say that there ways a, b, c and d reasons for the BTC price being lower than expected, and if a, b, c and d did not exist, there would be other reasons.. We cannot really know, so we just go with the punches, no?
Absolutely. If i wouldn't see it that way, i'd be better off creating a twitter account and join discussions there.
A small part of my lil selfie aimed at some goals i wanted to achieve, each of them needing some amount of money to be put in. For sure, i'd like it if Bitcoin would be (or have beeen already) in the desired price range(s) to make me sell a part of my stash, but these are all goals that would save me more money in the long run, so it's just a switch of assets, for everybody else that can see it that way.
If I am reading you correctly, then surely we can find a common ground to understand that since each of us knows that our journey UPpity is not going to be a straight path, each of us is going to deal with the UPs and DOWNs along the way in different ways.. in the meantime we have to be able to live.. we cannot just wait for the UPpity to happen.
So, big disputes can be had about how we vary in our ways of dealing with the UPs and DOWNs along the way.
I should stop while I am ahead because I cannot really get into knowing your particulars.. and I have no reason to not believe that you are projecting out various scenarios so it if you have projected out a variety of scenarios then there may well end up being some points that we vary in our discretion, but that would not mean that you have chosen a route that is not best for your weighing of the potential costs/benefits and risks from your perspective.
Bearwhales or whatever you want to call them, are going to attempt to take advantage of whatever they have going in their favor to continue to push the BTC price down for as long as they can and as low as they can get it to go, and for sure, they appreciate when weak hands cooperate because in that sense they do not have to use as many of their coins and/or resources because even though some of them might appear to have unlimited resources, such as infinitely printing money, there are likely even costs to some of their seemingly infinite resources.
I don't see the matter to be much different than previously in the sense that we continue to have attempts to push the BTC price down and attempt to cause HODLers to lose faith in HODLing... The main difference remains that the players are BIGGER and it takes more resources and financial instruments/tools to shake the weak hands from their coins.. and yeah, if there is an appearance that the 4-year fractal is broken or an appearance that stock to flow is broken then more weak hands can be shook from their coins...
Maybe an important question remains regarding the extent to which BTC prices can continue to be kept down for the next month, two or three months? Sure the longer that bearwhales are able to keep the price down, the more that confidence is lost, but I really doubt that their resources are infinite and at some point they run out of coins and they cannot keep this bad boy down any more... And, I am not even proclaiming that I know the result of our current battle... because even though I presume that we are still in a bull market and there are slightly favorable odds towards UP rather than DOWN, it is not like I am betting the farm on odds that are maybe only slightly over 50%, at this time. So most of us know that even the minority scenario may well end up playing out, which maybe we are already here in a kind of a minority scenario.. which truly adds to the loss of confidence of some BTC HODLers. but still does not mean that the bull market might not end up prevailing even if it could take a month, two months or three months to resolve the BTC price location battle that we are currently in.
Sure... that's part of the frame, too.
Of course, we have a dynamic in bitcoin in which the keeping of momentum can really play in favor of whichever side has the momentum... so if the momentum turns to the upside, then the momentum could end up carrying the price to places that are further than what seems to be rational.... so yeah cannot really disagree that as bitcoin's market cap gets BIGGER and BIGGER, it takes a lot more capital to push up the BTC price, yet we also have various potentialities for the confluence of events in which a lot of folks (retail and institutions) continue to take coins off of exchanges, so there are fewer coins to work with in terms of determining the BTC price, and so there could be some confluence of events that cause there to NOT be enough coins available - even if we might already have strong (sand likely true) suspicions that there are a decent number of entities faking the number of coins that they have - but even some of the faking of coins could end up blowing up in their face too under certain circumstances - including some kind of outrageous exponential rise of the BTC price and then their clients want the coins or want the value of the coins, and the third party has hardly any coins to satisfy such demands that they were faking that they had in their possession.. It is not a straight forward gamble, even for some entities who create the appearance that they have infinite resources when they might not have as many resources as they are making it seem that they have.
I don't see the matter to be much different than previously in the sense that we continue to have attempts to push the BTC price down and attempt to cause HODLers to lose faith in HODLing... The main difference remains that the players are BIGGER and it takes more resources and financial instruments/tools to shake the weak hands from their coins.. and yeah, if there is an appearance that the 4-year fractal is broken or an appearance that stock to flow is broken then more weak hands can be shook from their coins...
Maybe an important question remains regarding the extent to which BTC prices can continue to be kept down for the next month, two or three months? Sure the longer that bearwhales are able to keep the price down, the more that confidence is lost, but I really doubt that their resources are infinite and at some point they run out of coins and they cannot keep this bad boy down any more... And, I am not even proclaiming that I know the result of our current battle... because even though I presume that we are still in a bull market and there are slightly favorable odds towards UP rather than DOWN, it is not like I am betting the farm on odds that are maybe only slightly over 50%, at this time. So most of us know that even the minority scenario may well end up playing out, which maybe we are already here in a kind of a minority scenario.. which truly adds to the loss of confidence of some BTC HODLers. but still does not mean that the bull market might not end up prevailing even if it could take a month, two months or three months to resolve the BTC price location battle that we are currently in.
Either way, it would be a good level to go up from here, maybe sideways first, until investors are convinced it's "safe" to put their money onto the table (again).
Sure... that's part of the frame, too.
Another assumption: The higher the price, the less steep the climbs. The higher the "tops", the higher the "lows". Unless no more market shaking events happen in the near future, BTC is ready to go (again) from here. SOMA, IMHO
Of course, we have a dynamic in bitcoin in which the keeping of momentum can really play in favor of whichever side has the momentum... so if the momentum turns to the upside, then the momentum could end up carrying the price to places that are further than what seems to be rational.... so yeah cannot really disagree that as bitcoin's market cap gets BIGGER and BIGGER, it takes a lot more capital to push up the BTC price, yet we also have various potentialities for the confluence of events in which a lot of folks (retail and institutions) continue to take coins off of exchanges, so there are fewer coins to work with in terms of determining the BTC price, and so there could be some confluence of events that cause there to NOT be enough coins available - even if we might already have strong (sand likely true) suspicions that there are a decent number of entities faking the number of coins that they have - but even some of the faking of coins could end up blowing up in their face too under certain circumstances - including some kind of outrageous exponential rise of the BTC price and then their clients want the coins or want the value of the coins, and the third party has hardly any coins to satisfy such demands that they were faking that they had in their possession.. It is not a straight forward gamble, even for some entities who create the appearance that they have infinite resources when they might not have as many resources as they are making it seem that they have.
I can only agree here. I wish i could express myself in english the same way you do, would help a lot. The points you mentioned are factuals that i consider too, but i fail to keep track of many details of my own reasoning in discussions. Look up "working memory" in wikipedia. In other spheres, i found a hope for cure, but it's not even approved and i have to undergo some more diagnostic tests like PET scans and some fancy analysis of retinal perfusion to indicate if the still experimental medication is appliciable for me. It would end more than 10 years of impairment. Then we will create much more fruitful discussions #nohomo
Fair enough. I think with any one, there are going to be days in which it is easier or more difficult to express some kind of a theory regarding what might be going on, and for sure, sometimes when I am typing I get distracted, so there might be some relationship to a status in which I no longer can remember the overall point that I was trying to make.. and surely, sometimes also, the train of thought might be lost in the middle and never recovered... but part of my points above have to do with how long some of these manipulators may be able to get away with their manipulation.. and surely many of us longer term HODLers fantasize about their getting caught with their pants down in the event that they might be playing around with coins that they don't have or that they are running out of resources to keep king daddy down.