In terms of measuring from the 200/208-week moving average, the past 12 months have been quite great with right around 127% appreciation in where that 200/208-week moving average is measured.. largely going from about $8,630 to $19,500 if we are measuring from February 4.

You can look at specific dates, here:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Of course we are still around 2x higher than the 200/208-week moving average as I type this post with spot BTC prices in the supra $41k arena... so that helps to continue to have that ongoing drag UPwardly on the 200/208-week moving average price.

One thing remains is some uncertainty regarding how long it might take for the BTC spot price to start to get close to the 200/208-week moving average - but if we are hovering anywhere from at least 20% to 100% higher than the 200/208-week moving average we should be able to continue to feel some level of confidence that our wealth is continuing to appreciate in value - and for sure, also considerations if we also want to draw upon our BTC, we can measure limitations of how much we want to draw based on how far above the 200/208-week moving average the price might be. 

So for example, if I were to be living off my BTC, and I were to be clearly above fuck you status, then since the BTC spot price is more than 100% higher than the 200/208-week moving average, then I could cash out 10% of my stash based on a $19,500 valuation for the whole year if I might feel that I would feel more comfortable to withdraw for a whole year... so if were to hold 110 BTC, then I could cash out $214.5k for the year... and if I did so at spot price of $41,800, that would be around 5.13 BTC - or I could just choose to cash out smaller amounts each quarter, and just make sure that the spot price is sufficiently higher than the 200/208 week moving average each time that I cash out.. just for comfort purposes, but surely there would be flexibility (personal discretion) when using such a measure to figure out both how much to cash out and what increments.. even though I believe that most of us who have been into BTC for a sufficiently long period of time, we do not really want to time any of our cashing out of BTC when the BTC price is on a downtrend or seeming to be anywhere close to the 200/208 week moving average, so we might try to time any of our cashing outs while the BTC price is going up and in various lump periods (whether cashing out for a quarter, a half year, a year or even a couple of years - though there might be some hesitancy to hold that much cash - even though we know that BTC down periods can last a couple of years too.. so it is not always easy to time how much to cash out or how much cash we might want to keep on hand). 

So, if we cash out the amount that we need when the BTC price is quite a bit higher than the 200/208-week moving average then we might well get some comfort in that, and maybe also when the BTC price is moving up.. and that is to the extent that we feel any kind of preference for cashing out or just waiting it out.. and again none of us would not want to be caught without having any cash for the long periods that BTC can sometimes be in down periods.. including remembering that BTC spot price was quite close to the 200-week moving average for almost the whole of 2015... so those kinds of times of long periods of down could end up happening again and so when we get into such BTC liquidation stage, it is better to cash out some amount of value for insurance when the BTC price is going up or when it is at several levels higher than the 200/208 week moving average rather than when the BTC spot price is anywhere close to the 200/208-week moving average.   


I like that strawbs.. you got your priorities straight.  Hopefully they won't grill you about your picks, and of course, if you are getting together, you can just say you picked your team members kind of randomly anyhow, and you don't really know what you are doing.. and friends will frequently accept those kinds of explanations.... and if you end up scoring well (winning) then just explain that it was the luck of the draw.  I am not knowledgable on the actual topic of who's who in rugby, either.. and you are one step in front of me, by getting invited.


I am surprised that we have not been getting more cockiness from the goldbugs, and for sure, they were a bit cocky around the March 2020 because gold did have a short period in which it was gaining relative to bitcoin, even though to put the matter into a larger context, that March 2020 period did not last long.. and even if we have had decently good gold performance to BTC in the past year or two, many gold bugs are realizing that the writing is on the wall in terms of bitcoin continuing to eat gold's lunch... and I found the below chart/website, you can click on various comparisons of bitcoin to gold in various increments as small as 12 hours or as long as the past 10 years.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=XAU&view=10Y

So for example you will see that bitcoin was surely just a fraction of an ounce of gold until about early 2017 when it got up to bitcoin/ounce of gold parity.. but then a couple of times it has gotten up to 37 ounces.. even though recently BTC prices dipping down in to the 20 ounces per bitcoin range.. but could well be moving back up.. and surely we are likely going to be seeing bitcoin to amount to 100s of ounces and likely 10s of thousands of ounces, even though it will likely take longer for those higher numbers to play out.